JD Vance, vicepresidente de Estados Unidos, atribuyó a la guerra con Irán la derrota republicana en las elecciones de medio término. (Foto: gentileza)
El vicepresidente de Estados Unidos, JD Vance, atribuyó la derrota del Partido Republicano en las elecciones de medio término a la guerra con Irán. Lo hizo en un extenso mensaje en X el miércoles, un día después de que los demócratas se quedaran con el control del Congreso.
“La razón por la que perdimos es la guerra. El propio presidente lo dijo anoche”, escribió Vance. Y agregó: “Todos saben por qué perdimos. Y cualquier conversación honesta sobre cómo seguimos a partir de acá tiene que empezar por ahí”.
El vicepresidente sostuvo que los republicanos sí fueron a votar, pero no por su partido. “El problema principal es que mucha gente que votó por Trump y Vance en 2024 votó por los demócratas en 2026”, afirmó. Como ejemplo citó a Florida, donde el electorado fue 9 puntos más republicano que demócrata, apenas un par de puntos menos que en 2024.
One of the things the data analysts on our side obsessed over was «composition»—whether the electorate looked close enough to 2024 for Republicans to win. And despite polls that showed a Democrat blowout, the data kept on telling us the same story: in some states turnout was merely OK, in other states it was downright amazing, and in no state was it catastrophic. There was a genuine sense of optimism on our team: our people were showing up. So, I asked the smartest data guy I know, does that mean we’re going to shock the world? «No,» he told me. «We might do better than the polls suggest. But the data is telling us that a lot of Trump/Vance 2024 voters are pissed and planning to vote for the other guys. Our voters are turning out, but they may not vote for us.»Well, that looks prophetic now. Our voters did show up. In Florida, for example, the electorate was 9 points more Republican than Democrat, just a couple points worse than 2024. Undoubtedly there were places we could have done better on turnout. But the main problem is not turnout. The main problem is that many people who voted for Trump/Vance in 2024 voted for Democrats in 2026. There will be a lot of infighting and arguing over what happened and why that is. One of the pollsters I really respect told me that our economic messaging wasn’t sharp enough down the stretch. I’m sure that’s true. But the real reason we lost is obvious to almost everyone. Another pollster—one of the smartest people I know in politics, told me yesterday we’d lose the generic ballot by 13 points. I felt negative going into Tuesday, but even I was shocked by this. In his polling, he saw that a lot of Trump 2024 voters were angry and planning to vote for Democrats. He asked those voters who had abandoned us what would cause them to come back on our team. The top four answers, accounting for nearly all of the responses were:1) End the war2) Focus on cost of living/inflation3) Put America First4) Change our relationship to IsraelOur voters showed up. And the above four reasons are why many of them voted for Democrats. This is according to a pollster who nailed the results. While many spent Monday attacking Rachel Campos Duffy for calling for a diplomatic resolution to the conflict, it turns out her political advice was sound. (She’s also a great person.)In the next few months, there’s going to be a lot of gaslighting. Expect to hear any number of establishment politicians say the solution to our woes is amnesty. I’m open to the idea that we should change enforcement—by focusing more on businesses that hire illegal labor, for instance. But anyone pushing amnesty is lying to you. The reason we lost is the war. The president himself said so last night. If you’d like to argue it was worth it, that losing the Senate for the next 6 years was worth it, then do so. Argue it was a worthwhile cost to pay. Agree or disagree, that’s at least honest.But everyone knows why we lost. And any honest conversation about where we go from here must start there.I remain hopeful about our country. To the people who are pissed off and want to say, “I told you so”: you’re right, you did tell us so. Take that energy into electing Republicans who share your worldview. To the people who are just pissed at the results, you should be. Let’s take that anger and get back to the work of saving our country.
Vance contó que un encuestador le anticipó el día de la elección que perderían el voto genérico por 13 puntos. Según ese encuestador, los votantes de Trump que abandonaron al partido pusieron cuatro condiciones para volver: terminar la guerra, enfocarse en el costo de vida y la inflación, poner a Estados Unidos primero y cambiar la relación con Israel.
También lanzó un desafío a los defensores de la ofensiva militar. “Si quieren argumentar que perder el Senado por los próximos seis años valió la pena, háganlo. Estén de acuerdo o no, eso al menos es honesto”, planteó.
Donald Trump Jr., hijo del presidente, compartió el posteo de Vance en su cuenta de X. “Cada palabra de esto es 100% 100% 100%”, escribió, con el emoji que en redes se usa para expresar acuerdo total.
Donald Trump, en cambio, matizó el diagnóstico. En declaraciones a Fox News reconoció que el resultado “en parte se debió a Irán”, aunque aseguró que “la gente entendió la importancia” de lo que hizo con ese país.
Los demócratas ganaron el control de la Cámara de Representantes y del Senado, con 228 y 54 bancas respectivamente. Una encuesta de AP a votantes de los 50 estados mostró además que la inflación, que empeoró en lugar de bajar, pesó sobre los republicanos.
Fuente: Diario Río Negro — Regionales — ver publicación original.
